The Data Dive - Predicting Liverpool’s Summer Departures
Anfield Exodus: Evaluating Who Could Leave Liverpool This Summer and the Potential Financial Impact.
By all accounts Liverpool are preparing for a busy transfer window this summer. Despite the club enjoying remarkable success in Arne Slots’s first season at the club, the perceived lack of trust in the squad players as well as the need for first team improvement has seen speculation grow rife that Liverpool are preparing for a refresh in their first team squad.
In this opinion piece we will outline who is expected to depart before the new season and which players linked with a move away may deserve another chance. We will also predict how much money Liverpool will hope to receive in total from any sales made.
We will also do a part two to this piece, published simultaneously, to discuss what realistic targets Liverpool may take a look at in order to replace the cohort of departures. You can view that article by clicking next at the bottom of the screen, although I would highly suggest reading this first so you know who is being replaced as a result.
Firstly, the goalkeeping department is already confirmed to be revised ahead of the new season. Liverpool completed the transfer of Georgian international keeper Georgi Mamardashvili for up to £30 million in August 2024. The deal included an agreement that saw Mamardashvili stay at Valencia until the end of the season, and despite the team struggling again in La Liga, the Georgian has largely performed well. Georgi is one of the best young goalkeepers in world football and was very impressive in the 2024 Euros, making 30 saves in the competition despite Georgia having been knocked out in the group phase.
In fact there has been some fears that Mamardashvili is too good to have been signed as a backup goalkeeper and that perhaps current first choice Alisson was re-thinking his future on Merseyside however we would expect Alisson to stay for at least one more season as he has recently expressed his desire to stay at the club he clearly adores.
Therefore we would expect current second choice keeper Kelleher to finally get his move. The Republic of Ireland international has long been rumoured with a transfer away from the club in search of first team football. Kelleher is expected to be in high demand as he has shown that he is more than good enough to start for a range of Premier League teams whenever called upon. We expect Liverpool to keep Vítězslav Jaroš as his potential and homegrown status are valuable assets needed in a third string goalkeeper.
In defence, we already know that Trent Alexander Arnold will be departing on a free transfer to seek a new challenge at Real Madrid. If you would like to read our take on the Trent situation as well as five suggestions on who the data suggests could replace him you can do so HERE. According to most trusted sources, Liverpool would like to give Conor Bradley the chance to earn his place on the team sheet, however with both Joe Gomez and Jarell Quansah attracting interest from other Premier League clubs it’s generally expected at least one of those will be sold. This creates an issue of depth at right back and so we will assume that Liverpool will dip into the market seeking to add depth in that position.
At centre-back, Liverpool are expected to target an addition here too. The speculation surrounding Quansah and Gomez as well as the precarious contract situation with Ibrahima Konate means that Liverpool would be remiss not to target at least one addition at the heart of their defence. You can view a data dive on probably the best available option, Dean Huijsen HERE. The fact that the Spanish international is attracting the interest of other massive clubs like Real Madrid however means that for the purpose of the follow-up piece we will assume that Liverpool will not land that particular deal.
At left back Andrew Robertson’s struggles this season has been evident throughout the season, and it’s generally believed Liverpool will prioritize an addition in this position who will be expected to come into Liverpool’s starting eleven fairly quickly. We have already written a piece on primary target Milos Kerkez which you can read HERE. For the purpose of the part two article we will suggest a different profile to the Bournemouth star and we will also presume that Kostas Tsimikas will be headed for an exit to make room for the incoming signing.
The midfield situation promises to be an interesting dilemma also. Last summer Liverpool missed out on their primary target when Martin Zubimendi rejected the chance to move to Merseyside. Arne Slot decided against moving for a secondary target at all, choosing instead to seek a solution from within when he deployed Ryan Gravenberch to play in a deeper role, a decision that has been a roaring success. In that regard it seems rather unlikely that Liverpool will target a player who would expect to break Arne Slot’s “best” eleven.
However the lack of depth in that position as well as the expectation for Tyler Morton to be granted a move away means that Liverpool may be forced into making a move. Stefan Bajcetic will be given a chance to impress in pre-season and Wataru Endo has become a valuable asset in tight fixtures so with the scale of the other business to be done we will assume Liverpool will bide their time in the deeper midfield department. Although Liverpool could recruit someone who can resolve one of the other positions while also being capable cover in defensive midfield as you can see later.
The situation in attacking midfield is also an interesting one as we approach the opening of the transfer window. Dominik Szoboszlai had a great season in many aspects in 2024-2025 however he has attracted criticism from a section of the fanbase for his relatively low number of goals and assists despite being deployed in a more advanced role this season.
There’s no chance Szoboszlai is sold this Summer but the same can’t be said for his understudy Harvey Elliott. Elliott has found it hard to earn decent minutes under the new manager so far and with a plethora of teams more than willing to take on the services of one of the brightest young English prospects in the league, it seems likely the club would listen to reasonable offers. Earlier this season, Harvey expressed his love for the club and confirmed his preference to stay and fight for his place at his boyhood club so we predict that he will resist leaving for at least one more season and will try to earn back his place.
The attack is also due for a shake-up this summer. For starters, the only arrival from last season Federico Chiesa has barely featured and his high-earner status within the squad leads us to believe the club will be keen to cut their losses on the Italian international. Darwin Nunez almost left for Saudi Arabia in January and there has been little to suggest that the club are in any way keen to retain his services. By all accounts it seems that Nunez is almost destined to complete a delayed move there.
There is also much speculation around the futures of Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz. Jota did not have a great season and has again been hampered by injury. Luis Diaz had an up-and-down campaign, perhaps as a result of being expected to share playing time between his favored left wing and as a false nine. He, like Nunez, has also attracted interest from Saudi.
However we would expect both to stay at the club. Diaz has been in fine form towards the back end of the league campaign and the fact that he’s a relatively low earner at the club indicates that Liverpool would be in no rush to sell him as his value compared to what he’s being paid is arguably one of the best in the squad. A new deal is on the cards but the most sensible course of action would be to run down his existing contract before making any decisions on that front.
We would also like to see Diogo Jota kept for one more season as despite his fitness concerns, he has scored important goals when called upon and would be a great option when coming off the bench in search of a goal.
The only other source of revenue within the playing squad would likely be Ben Doak. He attracted interest from a host of Premier League teams such as Ipswich and Crystal Palace in January and recent reports suggest that interest has not ceased. The young Scotsman is a very good young prospect and is seen to have a big future at the club, but we did see last summer that Liverpool are willing to let go of some of their better young prospects as a means to increase revenue.
To conclude, here’s who we think will depart Liverpool this summer as well as how much Liverpool will hope to recoup from the outgoings:
Caomhin Kelleher - £25 million
Trent Alexander-Arnold - Free Transfer
Joe Gomez - £25 million
Kostas Tsimikas - £15 million
Tyler Morton - £10 million
Ben Doak - £25 million
Federico Chiesa - £15 million
Darwin Nunez - £60 million
Predicted Total Transfer Income Received - £175 million.